NOAA predicts below-normal hurricane season

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity typically occurring from mid-August to mid-October.

For 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The agency forecasts eight to 14 named storms. Of those, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. NOAA said it has 70% confidence in those projections. A key factor behind the forecast is the development of El Niño, a climate pattern that can influence hurricane activity and weather conditions worldwide. A strong El Niño typically brings South Carolina a milder hurricane season but increases the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Residents can take several steps to prepare for possible storms. The National Weather Service recommends several measures to help people prepare for hurricane season. Developing an evacuation plan, assembling disaster supplies, documenting possessions, reviewing insurance coverage, creating a communication plan and strengthening homes can help reduce risks during a storm. Residents also should know their evacuation zone. The South Carolina Emergency Management Division provides information on evacuation zones and storm-surge risk for residents of Hilton Head Island and Bluffton. Understanding that information before a storm threatens the area can help residents respond more effectively during an emergency.

The National Hurricane Center uses hurricane watches and warnings to alert residents of approaching storms. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions, including sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, are possible within a specified area. Watches are typically issued 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected. A hurricane warning indicates hurricane conditions are expected in the area. Warnings are generally issued 36 hours before dangerous winds are anticipated, giving residents time to complete storm preparations.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale helps classify hurricanes based on their maximum sustained wind speeds. The scale ranges from Category 1 to Category 5. While all hurricanes can produce life-threatening conditions, storms rated Category 3 or higher are considered major hurricanes.

Category 1 hurricanes have sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph and can cause power outages and minor damage to homes. Category 2 storms produce winds of 96 to 110 mph and may cause major roof damage, uproot trees and result in widespread power outages. Category 3 hurricanes bring winds of 111 to 129 mph and can cause significant structural damage, blocked roads and utility outages that may last for weeks. Category 4 storms have sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph and can inflict catastrophic damage, leaving some areas isolated or uninhabitable for weeks. Category 5 hurricanes, with winds exceeding 157 mph, can destroy many framed homes, block roads and leave communities isolated and uninhabitable for months.

Since 1851, dozens of tropical cyclones have made landfall along the South Carolina coast. Of those storms, only four made landfall as major hurricanes: the Great Charleston Hurricane of 1893, Hurricane Hazel in 1954, Hurricane Gracie in 1959 and Hurricane Hugo in 1989. More recently, Hurricanes Ian in 2022 and Helene in 2024 brought intense wind gusts and flooding. Ian left 210,000 people without power in South Carolina, while Helene resulted in dozens of deaths. One of the most devastating storms to affect the Lowcountry in recent years was Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Winds reaching 100 mph resulted in 120,000 downed trees, 2 million cubic yards of debris, major damage to hundreds of homes and repair costs estimated at up to $55 million.

For the Lowcountry, a below-average forecast should not change how residents approach hurricane season. Despite predictions, storms can intensify unexpectedly. Preparing before a storm develops can help residents better protect their families, homes and businesses.

James Hook is a student-athlete at Converse University. He graduated from John Paul II Catholic School in 2025 and his interests include running, creative writing and true crime.